Key facts
- The calculator uses only user-entered assumptions; default values are hypothetical and do not describe any real mine.
- Annual pounds of U3O8 = ore (kt) x 1,000,000 kg x grade x recovery / 0.45359237 kg per lb.
- The model excludes taxes, working capital, escalation and closure costs, so it overstates value relative to a real feasibility study.
- Discount rate and price assumptions usually move NPV more than any other single input.
What this calculator is, and what it is not
This tool is a teaching model. It lets you vary a handful of inputs and see their effect on a project's net present value (NPV). It uses no real project data: the defaults in the calculator are arbitrary placeholders, and the outputs must not be read as an estimate for any actual mine, company or deposit. Real feasibility work is done by qualified persons, follows disclosure codes such as NI 43-101 in Canada or JORC in Australia, and rests on drilling, metallurgical test work, engineering design, and detailed financial modelling that the calculator cannot reproduce.
Where a feasibility study sits in project development
Resource estimates and early economic screens are followed by progressively more detailed studies, usually described as preliminary economic assessment, pre-feasibility and feasibility. Accuracy of cost estimates improves at each stage, and so does the confidence classification of the resource.
A study at each stage depends on the same core elements that the calculator exposes in simplified form: how much uranium is in the ground, at what grade, how much can be recovered, what it costs to mine and process, what it can be sold for, and what return investors require. Project types differ; for in-situ recovery operations, which have a different cost structure from conventional mines, see the ISL page.
The inputs and how the model uses them
- Ore processed per year (kt): tonnes of ore milled, in thousands.
- Grade: uranium content of ore, as a percentage of U3O8 or equivalent.
- Recovery: the share of contained uranium that ends up in saleable concentrate, determined by metallurgy.
- Price (USD per lb U3O8): an assumed realised sales price, which you enter. Published price data are available from sources such as the US Energy Information Administration's annual uranium marketing report, but the calculator does not include any.
- Royalty (% of revenue): a payment to a government or other holder of rights.
- Operating cost (USD per tonne of ore): mining, milling, and site costs.
- Capital cost and mine life: up-front investment and years of production.
- Discount rate: the annual rate used to bring future cash flows to present value.
The calculation is: annual pounds = ore (kt) × 1,000,000 × grade × recovery ÷ 0.45359237 per kilogram-to-pound; revenue = pounds × price; royalty = royalty % × revenue; operating cost = cost per tonne × tonnes of ore; annual cash flow = revenue − royalty − operating cost. Each year's cash flow is discounted as CF / (1 + r)t, and NPV is that sum less the capital cost. Taxes, working capital, inflation, and closure and reclamation costs are left out.
A fully hypothetical worked example
Suppose, purely for illustration, an assumed mine processes 500 kt of ore a year at a grade of 0.10% (1,000 ppm) with 85% recovery, an assumed price of USD 60 per lb, a 5% royalty, operating cost of USD 45 per tonne of ore, capital cost of USD 150 million spent at the start, and a 10-year life. None of these numbers describes a real project.
- Recovered uranium: 500,000 t × 1,000 kg/t × 0.001 × 0.85 = 425,000 kg U3O8, which is about 936,960 lb per year.
- Revenue at USD 60/lb: about USD 56.2 million; royalty at 5%: about USD 2.8 million.
- Operating cost: 500,000 × 45 = USD 22.5 million, which is about USD 24 per lb produced.
- Annual cash flow: about USD 30.9 million.
Treating the capital as spent at time zero and cash flows as arriving at the end of years 1 to 10, the NPV comes out at about USD 57 million at an 8% discount rate, about USD 40 million at 10% and about USD 25 million at 12%. The calculator's own timing convention may differ slightly, so its results for the same inputs could vary a little from these.
Which assumptions matter most
Try changing one input at a time. In the example above, annual cash flow is revenue minus costs, and revenue scales directly with price, grade, recovery and throughput, while costs scale mainly with throughput. A fall in grade therefore cuts revenue without cutting operating cost per tonne of ore, so the effect on margins is more than proportional.
The effect of price is similar: costs remain fixed while revenue varies. The discount rate then determines how heavily the later years count; a higher rate reduces NPV and favours projects with short payback. Capital cost has a first-order effect, since it is not discounted. Studies by developers typically present such sensitivities to show how robust the case is to changes in these variables.
What a real study adds
A real feasibility study models a production schedule that changes by year, ramp-up, grade variation by block, sustaining capital, taxation, working capital, price escalation or contract structure, financing, and, importantly, closure, reclamation and long-term care of tailings, which are discussed on the mill tailings page. It also carries uncertainty: resource classification, metallurgical risk, permitting and community acceptance. The calculator ignores all of this, so its NPV is an upper-bound illustration of arithmetic, not an investment view. For how the front-end steps that follow the mill fit together, see the fuel production chain, and for the downstream cost structure see fuel cycle costs.
Frequently asked questions
Does this calculator use data from any real mine?
No. The inputs are placeholders chosen only to illustrate the calculation, and results must not be taken as an estimate for any project.
What does NPV mean?
Net present value is the sum of a project's future cash flows discounted to today's value at a chosen rate, less the up-front investment.
Why does the calculator ignore tax and closure costs?
To keep the model simple. Real studies include them, so the calculator's NPV is more favourable than a realistic figure would be.
How is pounds of U3O8 calculated?
Ore tonnes times grade times recovery gives kilograms of U3O8, which is divided by 0.45359237 to give pounds.
Where do real price data come from?
Published sources include national statistical agencies such as the US Energy Information Administration; the calculator does not supply prices, so you enter your own.
Sources and further reading
- World Nuclear Association — Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview (2024)
- World Nuclear Association — Economics of Nuclear Power (2024)
- US Energy Information Administration — Uranium Marketing Annual Report (2024)
- OECD Nuclear Energy Agency / IEA — Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2020 Edition (2020)
- World Nuclear Association — Uranium Enrichment (2024)
- World Nuclear Association — Conversion and Deconversion (2024)
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